one on AI and one on US
Shit Punk Says
Oceans of Wisdom
19,158
matching drops
#1459158
2026-09-22 15:17
but i want to lay out two world view items first
so back to AGI; I see the 6529 specific stuff above and will come to them
lol
because my regular coffee now tastes like crap
and now I am a broken man
but roaster has been broken for 2 weeks
from Costa Rica
well above normal white collar worker
is my guess
in quality
o5-pro with long web browsing sections is elite research scientist
Deep Research is o3 + web browsing
and you can see the direction
at this stage the frontier models make fewer mistakes than most humans imho
managerial AGI will have been achieved then
that can browse the web, connect to databases, connect to github etc
imagine a model smarter than almost all of us
so 6-18 months from now
but it is a big priority for them
still imperfect
operator, deep research
you can see openai working on it
there is a parallel exercise called "give them tools"
so I expect soon in pure reasoning the models will pass almost every human this year
and i am decent at math
certainly better at math than me
o3-pro is an elite level mathematician or computer programmer
all of those are 2025 releases
but OK o3-pro, o4-pro, max o5-pro will get there
now AGI is something like "better than anyone at everything"
tbf I think o1-pro is probably what we would have thought of as AGI in the very recent past but we keep moving the line
o1-pro is almost as smart as me
a) o3-pro (March) or o4-pro (summer) will definitely be AGI as we traditionally defined it
your timelines should be as follows:
So let's start there
I am not sure how I am gong to be able to handle myself
and now Deep Research, soon o3 and o3-pro
o1-pro absolutely one-shotted me over the holidays
MOAR INFORMATION PLS INTO MY BRAIN
LLMs are absolute crack cocaine for me
going be a few minutes late to start!
yo
tomorrow AMA, 1900 UTC we do it in brain, reduce the gate to level 5 @[simo]
and bonus tweet storm
https://x.com/punk6529/status/1884691614762734057
https://x.com/punk6529/status/1884686911953870887
very impressed!
imagineable
everything imagine
https://x.com/punk6529/status/1884003516320252260